Can't Wait Sci-Fi/Fantasy of 2016

One of the really cool things about goodreads is it's ability to create lists. The bad side of this is they are often not accurate ;-(. The Can't Wait Sci-Fi/Fantasy of 2016 list has (at the time of this writing), been voted on by 423 people. Currently it contains 129 books - but as you'll see some of the most highly anticipated won't be coming out in 2016. Here's what I know about the top 10.

1. Patrick Rothfuss: Doors of Stone (The Kingkiller Chronicle, #3) - doubtful for 2016. Patrick is no longer saying much about books until they are "close" to release and given how much post-production work is involved I doubt we'll see this in 2016.
2. George R.R. Martin: The Winds of Winter (A Song of Ice and Fire, #6) - rumor has it that George is trying to be more concentrated on writing since the series is getting a head the books. I'm not sure this will make 2016.  I think 2017 is more likely, time will tell.
3. Brandon Sanderson: Oathbringer (The Stormlight Archive, #3) - only at 21% complete at the moment, but Brandon does write quickly. He's said that if he can get the first draft done by March November 2016 is possible. I think it will probably slip into 2017, but we'll know more by April 1.
4. Scott Lynch: The Thorn of Emberlain (Gentleman Bastard #4)   - This was originally targeted for 2015 and so I think the the chances for 2016 are pretty good. Scott, has been notorious for missing deadlines in the past, he suffers from bouts of depression that effects his ability to write, but I think in general he's been better on that front in recent years.
5. Brandon Sanderson: Bands of Mourning (Mistborn, #6) - pretty much a done deal, the release date is early int he year, pre-orders are live, and the manuscript is 100% through the final draft. This will hit 2016.
6. Mark Lawrence: The Wheel of Osheim (The Red Queen's War, #3) - I'm sure this will hit 2016. Mark tends to write ahead of schedule on his books and has a good track record of on-time releases. 
7. Michael J. Sullian: Age of Myth (The First Empire #1) - No question this will come out in 2016. My editor received the book in April 2015 and it's already been through structural editing with not much in the way of changes required. 
8. Brandon Sanderson: Calamity (Reckoners, #3) - Again I think this is a pretty "done deal" for 2016. 100% through the rough draft so it should be good to go.
9. Robin Hobb: Assassin's Fate (Fitz and the Fool, #3)  - A mid-year release from an author with a good track record for on-time delivery - I think this will hit on schedule.
10. Brent Weeks: The Blood Mirror (Lightbringer, #4)  - No pre-order page on Amazon and no listing in Nielsen's Bookscan, which surprises me. Brent tends to do books on a 2-year schedule so I do think he'll hit 2016.  Also, initial chapters are already circulating and so this bodes well so I give it a 90% chance of hitting 2016.

Okay, so that's the list I'll summarize my "guesses about release here."

• Unlikely: Doors of Stone & Winds of Winter
• Potential Risk: Oathbringer & Thorn of Emberlain
• High Probability: Assassin's Fate, The Blood Mirror
• Sure things: Bands of Mourning, The Wheel of Osheim, Age of Myth, Calamity